The Client Worth Index (CPI) rose 1.2% within the September 2023 quarter and 5.4% yearly, in line with the newest information from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).
On a month-to-month foundation, the CPI indicator rose 5.6% within the 12 months to September.
All eyes flip to the Reserve Financial institution to see whether or not this improve will imply one other charge improve earlier than the top of the 12 months.
Inflation continues to rise
Michelle Marquardt (pictured above), ABS head of costs statistics, stated newest CPI figures rose 1.2% within the September quarter, greater than the 0.8% rise within the June 2023 quarter.
“The rise this quarter nevertheless continued to be decrease than these seen all through 2022,” Marquardt stated.
“Whereas costs continued to rise for many items and companies, there have been some offsetting falls this quarter together with for childcare, greens, and home vacation journey and lodging.”
Quarterly CPI inflation
Essentially the most important contributors to the rise within the September quarter had been automotive gas (+7.2%), rents (+2.2%), new dwellings bought by proprietor occupiers (+1.3%), and electrical energy (+4.2%).
Automotive gas rose 7.2% after two quarters of worth falls. That is the most important quarterly rise in gas costs since March 2022 and is especially brought on by greater world oil costs.
Rents rose 2.2%, following a 2.5% rise within the June quarter with rental worth development for residences persevering with to outpace worth development for homes. The rise in rents this quarter was moderated by adjustments to Commonwealth Lease Help.
From 20 September 2023, the utmost charge out there for Lease Help elevated by 15% on prime of the CPI indexation that applies twice a 12 months.
“That is the most important improve in Commonwealth Lease Help for 30 years and, whereas the rise utilized for less than a part of the quarter, it decreased the general improve in rents by 0.3 proportion factors,” Ms Marquardt stated.
Costs for brand spanking new dwellings rose 1.3% this quarter, although they proceed to ease from rises seen in 2022 as a result of subdued new demand and easing materials prices.
Electrical energy rose 4.2% reflecting greater wholesale costs being handed on to prospects from annual worth evaluations in July.
“Electrical energy costs had been partially offset by the Power Invoice Aid Fund rebates, which had been launched this quarter. These rebates decreased electrical energy payments for all households in Brisbane and Perth, and for concession households within the remaining states and territories. Excluding the rebates, electrical energy costs would have elevated 18.6% within the September quarter,” Ms Marquardt stated.
Meals costs (+0.6%) additionally rose this quarter, with the rise being the softest quarterly rise since September 2021. The rise was pushed by meals out and takeaway meals (+2.1%). Partially offsetting the quarterly rise had been worth falls for fruit and greens (-3.7%).
“Fruit and vegetable costs fell this quarter as a result of beneficial rising situations. Berries, grapes, and salad greens resembling tomatoes, broccoli and capsicums drove the autumn,” Ms Marquardt stated.
Baby care fell 13.2%, and was the most important contributing fall this quarter. Adjustments to the Baby Care Subsidy raised the quantity of subsidy obtained for over one million households and got here into impact on 10 July 2023.
“This transformation decreased out of pocket prices for households, greater than offsetting little one care price will increase this quarter. With out the adjustments to the Subsidy, little one care would have elevated 6.7%,” Marquardt stated.
Annual inflation measures
Yearly, the CPI rose 5.4%, with new dwellings (+5.2%), rents (+7.6%), electrical energy (+14.5%), and automotive gas (+7.9%) essentially the most important contributors.
“September quarter’s annual improve of 5.4% is decrease than the 6.0% annual rise within the June 2023 quarter. This marks the third quarter in a row of decrease annual inflation, down from the height of seven.8% within the December 2022 quarter,” Ms Marquardt stated.
Underlying inflation measures scale back the influence of irregular or non permanent worth adjustments within the CPI. Annual trimmed imply inflation was 5.2%, down from 5.9% within the June quarter.
Month-to-month CPI indicator
At the moment the ABS additionally launched the month-to-month CPI indicator for September, which rose 5.6% within the 12 months to September.
“Essentially the most important contributors to the rise had been new dwellings (+4.9%), automotive gas (+19.7%), rents (+7.6%) and tobacco (+7.5%).
“That is the second consecutive rise within the annual motion up from 5.2% August and 4.9% in July. Whereas many industries worth will increase are slowing, automotive gas has had massive annual will increase within the final two months, which has been driving the motion greater,” Marquardt stated.
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