Right here’s my interview with Oliver Renick and TD from yesterday. I introduced my sledge hammer with me to exhibit how Fed coverage is at present working. I additionally go into element concerning the present macro setting and the dangers going ahead. Particularly:
- This setting is transitioning from an rate of interest threat setting to a credit score threat setting. This implies credit score markets might reamin beneath duress as benchmark rates of interest modify greater and debt will get reassessed at these greater charges.
- It is a credit score and housing pushed downturn. Meaning it’s going to be extra of a disinflation story sooner or later and an extended drawn out financial occasion.
- The Fed can’t pivot at this level as a result of they’ve already turned over the ball. I feel they’re approach behind the curve on inflation and this story will turn into an increasing number of of a disinflation story as we head into 2023.
- This isn’t fairly 2008 and it isn’t fairly 2002. Nevertheless it undoubtedly isn’t 1978 for my part. Meaning it’s going to be a tricky highway to hoe. Persistence and self-discipline are going to be important for navigating this powerful setting.
I hope you benefit from the interview.