Exmar was a particular scenario that I entered in August, following a shocking vital asset sale (a LNG liquification platform referred to as “Tango”)
Yesterday night, Exmar reported Q3 numbers together with the ultimate numbers on the ENI transaction. A couple of factors that I discovered necessary:
- Money proceeds for the ENI transaction had been barely greater (+13 mn) in comparison with my base case
- Web money at firm degree nevertheless was -23 mn decrease than I had calculated
- Curiously, Exmar solely reported internet money at Group degree, not gross money at Holding degree
- The remaining core LPG enterprise appears to do fairly effectively, with gross sales up ~6% and EBIT up ~50%
- They didn’t present express quantity on how a lot they earn with the remaining regasification unit that’s working since August. The earnings of the “infrastructure” phase are actually arduous to learn
- Subsequent week, there might be a rare shareholder assembly declaring a 0,95 EUR dividend per share
The share value has carried out fairly effectively. On the time of writing, Exmar traded at 10,20 EUR per share, a rise of virtually precisely 1/3 vs. after I entered the place and even higher in relative phrases:
Right here is the up to date matrix that I used initially to calculate anticipated returns. The one factor that I’ve modified is the present share value and exchanging 2,5 EUR particular dividend with 0,95 EUR:
We will see that relying on the assumed future low cost, the potential is kind of restricted if 0,95 EUR stays the one particular dividend.
To be trustworthy, I’m someway skeptical that they distribute far more. Possibly I’m a bit paranoid, however not reporting the gross money quantity as an example might point out that they may wish to maintain a good portion of the money.
With regard to the remaining enterprise, one might argue that this is likely to be value various months in the past, as profitability is rising considerably, alternatively, this particular scenario was by no means concerning the the remaining enterprise as such, however that the hole between “truthful worth” and value would chop, pushed by the closing of the Tango deal and a particular dividend.
As I discussed within the preliminary put up, I don’t assume that Exmar is a good firm, however reasonably that Exmar obtained very fortunate with how issues developed for something that was LNG associated.
Subsequently I made a decision to say “thanks for the Tango” to Exmar and offered my place at 10,20 EUR per share with a revenue of ~33%.
