Animal Spirits: Bear Market Math

Posted October 26, 2022 by sean

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$UAL CEO: “There was a everlasting structural change in leisure demand due to the pliability that hybrid work permits. With hybrid work, each weekend may very well be a vacation weekend. That’s why September, a usually off-peak month was the third strongest month in our historical past”

— The Transcript (@TheTranscript_) October 23, 2022

Some family names within the S&P 500 down 50% or extra from all-time highs:

Fb -66%
Tesla -50%
Nvidia -65%
Disney -51%
Nike -52%
Netflix -62%

Higher efficiency 5 years out: this basket of shares or the S&P 500?

— Ben Carlson (@awealthofcs) October 24, 2022

The speed climb has pressured S&P 500 costs all the way down to 17 occasions 12-month trailing earnings from greater than 30 in simply 18 months, placing inventory valuations in step with the final time short-term Treasury yields have been of their present vary. pic.twitter.com/MK6ZiZNqy6

— Gina Martin Adams (@GinaMartinAdams) October 22, 2022

Housing plunging:

Case Shiller -1.32% M/M, Exp. -0.8%, largest drop since March 2009!

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 25, 2022

And a few Redfin stats. They at present have twenty properties in the marketplace, and here is a take a look at acquisition vs present record / pending worth. I am not making an attempt to throw shade right here. I’ll discuss all iBuyers and something I feel is attention-grabbing or related for dialog. pic.twitter.com/zOF3ErZFzr

— Ryan Lundquist (@SacAppraiser) October 18, 2022

As charges proceed to rise, extra patrons are making use of for ARM loans. The ARM share of functions final week elevated to 12.8% by mortgage depend, the very best since 2008. At present charges, an ARM will increase client house-buying energy by ~$47,000 in contrast with a conventional 30-year FRM. pic.twitter.com/fU0GMcEWXQ

— Odeta Kushi (@odetakushi) October 19, 2022

Pulte Group CFO: “With immediately’s more difficult market situations, in Q3 we selected to stroll from sure choices tied to future land funding the place returns not met required efficiency metrics”$PHM is reassessing all pending transactions previous to finishing land purchases https://t.co/KuIGupcntp pic.twitter.com/8eQr4fUW0B

— The Transcript (@TheTranscript_) October 25, 2022

The main bank card community operators can typically present us with attention-grabbing insights into broader components of the financial system.

Right here’s 8 excerpts and some slides from Friday’s $AXP Q3 earnings name that stood out to us 👇

1. Spending is at close to ATHs: pic.twitter.com/FN1jRcYIGo

— Quartr (@Quartr_App) October 22, 2022

Constancy to extend its crypto unit by 25% with 100 new hires to a complete of 500 individuals

— Blockworks (@Blockworks_) October 24, 2022

Have you ever seen this man?

Age: 30-45
Weight: 150-200lbs
Peak: 5’- 6’ 5”
Blonde hair
Blue eyes

– Final seen 6 days in the past tweeting Bloomberg headlines in all caps.

– Solutions to “Walter” or @DeItaone

– Please name 281-330-8004 with any info on his whereabouts. pic.twitter.com/nsi0QyF1DJ

— Ramp Capital (@RampCapitalLLC) October 19, 2022

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