By Lambert Strether of Corrente
Chook Tune of the Day
Crimson Siskin, location unrecorded. Name, track. With crowing rooster, and I swear someone chopping wooden.
Politics
“However what’s authorities itself, however the best of all reflections on human nature?” –James Madison, Federalist 51
“Right here’s meals for thought, had Ahab time to assume; however Ahab by no means thinks; he solely feels, feels, feels” –Herman Melville, Moby Dick
“So lots of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in truth a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
Capitol Seizure
“Do Violent Protests Have an effect on Expressions of Social gathering Id? Proof from the Capitol Riot” [American Political Science Review]. “Utilizing day-level panel information from a big pattern of US social media customers to trace adjustments within the identities expressed of their Twitter biographies, we present that the Capitol rebel brought about a large-scale lower in outward expressions of identification with the Republican Social gathering and Donald Trump, with no indication of reidentification within the weeks that adopted. This discovering means that there are limits to get together loyalty: a violent assault on democratic establishments units boundaries on partisanship, even amongst avowed partisans. Moreover, the discovering that political violence can deflect copartisans carries the potential optimistic democratic implication that those that encourage or affiliate themselves with such violence pay a political value.” • I’m undecided that numbers (inside cheap limits) matter right here a lot as “power” (for need of a greater phrase). See Benjamin Studebaker yesterday on resentment.
“Oath Keepers member: Capitol riot was historic, spontaneous” [The Hill]. “A Florida man who stormed the U.S. Capitol with different members of the far-right Oath Keepers testified Monday that he believed they had been taking part in a historic “Bastille-type occasion” paying homage to the French Revolution. Graydon Younger, a authorities witness on the seditious conspiracy trial of Oath Keepers founder Stewart Rhodes and 4 associates, mentioned he noticed parallels between the mob that attacked the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, and the French individuals who ‘stood up and resisted kings and tyrants’ greater than two centuries in the past…. Younger mentioned he got here to Washington to battle towards ‘the corrupt components of the federal government’ that had been making ready to certify President Joe Biden’s 2020 electoral victory. ‘I suppose I used to be appearing like a traitor,’ he added…. Protection legal professional James Lee Vivid, one in all Rhodes’ attorneys, pressed Younger to level to any proof of a legal conspiracy or “specific plan” for Oath Keepers to assault the Capitol. ‘It was implicit to me on the time,’ Younger mentioned. ‘I didn’t explicitly say, ‘Let’s commit a criminal offense,’ however I believed it was implicit.’ ‘It was spontaneous,’ Vivid mentioned. ‘It was,’ Younger mentioned.” • Hmm.
Abortion
“Supreme Courtroom’s Alito says abortion draft leak made justices ‘targets’” [Reuters]. “In blunt phrases, Alito additionally commented on the person who was charged with tried homicide after being arrested close to the Maryland residence of conservative Justice Brett Kavanaugh in June. Alito mentioned the leak of his draft opinion made the conservative justices who on the time had been thought to again overturning Roe v. Wade ‘targets for assassination as a result of it gave individuals a rational purpose to assume they may stop that from taking place by killing one in all us.’” • They by no means did discover the leaker, did they? Should make for a collegial ambiance in chambers.
Biden Administration
“‘We’re not towards earnings,’ White Home presidential coordinator says after Biden’s tax threats on power corporations” [CNBC]. • Glad that’s clarified.
2022
* * * “Poll paper scarcity may trigger issues onElection Day” [ABC]. “A paper provide crunch is testing the preparedness of U.S. election officers and exposing a key vulnerability in America’s democratic course of as midterm voting will get underway. The 2022 election cycle will use an estimated 30 million kilos of paper, in accordance with trade consultants. Hovering demand and a scarcity of producers through the pandemic have pinched nationwide stockpiles, leaving little room for error. ‘We’re all simply collectively crossing our fingers and hoping that the provision chain works simply advantageous,’ mentioned Ricky Hatch, county clerk and election administrator for Weber County, Utah.” • “Our democracy” can’t even be certain there are ballots? And talking of ballots–
Creepy certainly–
Alarm: Creepy letters going out to early voters in Tarrant County from native “Cease the Steal” activists. #txgov pic.twitter.com/k4L3XRntHZ
— Bud Kennedy / #ReadLocal (@BudKennedy) November 1, 2022
What subsequent? Residence visits? Armed residence visits?
* * * “Management of the Senate is coming all the way down to this hidden dynamic” [Ron Brownstein, CNN]. “Management of the US Senate will probably be determined subsequent week in cross-pressured states the place most voters disapprove of President Joe Biden’s efficiency but additionally categorical unfavorable views about their state’s Republican Senate nominee…. On this stormy sea, the largest lifeline nonetheless out there for Democrats is the massive variety of voters in these battleground states who view the Republican Senate candidates as excessive, unqualified, or each. Current public polls by CNN and different media organizations have discovered that extra voters maintain unfavorable than favorable views of nearly all of the GOP nominees in the important thing states – together with Blake Masters in Arizona, Herschel Walker in Georgia, Adam Laxalt in Nevada, Don Bolduc in New Hampshire, J.D. Vance in Ohio, Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania and Sen. Ron Johnson in Wisconsin. Destructive assessments of the Democratic candidates in these states have been rising as effectively, as they face a barrage of Republican assault adverts, usually tying them to Biden. Even so, in most (although not all) instances, voters maintain a comparatively extra favorable view of the Democratic candidate than the Republican, polls present. The fulcrum within the marketing campaign’s last days could also be whether or not the final remaining voters are moved extra by these private doubts concerning the GOP contenders or by their coverage objections to Biden’s efficiency at a time when polls present that almost all Individuals disapprove of how he has dealt with crime, the border, and above all of the financial system and inflation. The current CNN polls in a number of key Senate races present that a big, and probably decisive, slice of voters each disapprove of Biden’s efficiency and look at the GOP nominee unfavorably: 9% in Wisconsin, 11% in Nevada, 13% in Pennsylvania and 15% in Arizona, in accordance with detailed outcomes offered by the CNN polling unit. ‘The actual query comes all the way down to that group of independents within the center, and who votes on the finish,’ says Paul Maslin, a long-time Democratic pollster. ‘Is it individuals saying, ‘I hate inflation, crime is wrecking this large metropolis I stay in,’ or individuals saying, ‘I’m sorry however Herschel Walker is a clown, Mehmet Oz is a clown. … Blake Masters is a joke,’ they usually return to [the Democrats]? I don’t know. I truthfully don’t know.’” • So no person is aware of something….
* * * NY: “How Unhealthy Is It for New York Democrats?” [Ross Barkan, Political Currents]. “Past Zeldin [v. Hochul], there’s a Democrat-run state legislature that may, barring true disaster for the Democrats, keep of their management. What is going to seemingly fall, nevertheless, are the supermajorities—the veto-proof margins within the State Senate and Meeting that, in principle, lent the legislature a large amount of leverage. Sufficient Republicans are poised to win to erase the Senate supermajority and take away, extra surprisingly, the massive margin Meeting Democrats have at all times loved.” • , very on-the-ground piece.
NY: “Stefanik eyes management function as Castelli seeks upset as a reasonable” [Syracuse.com (bob)]. “U.S. Rep. Elise Stefanik is on the precipice of turning into one of many nation’s strongest federal lawmakers. She first has to beat a problem for her seat by Matt Castelli, a former CIA intelligence officer and self-described reasonable Democrat. Then, Stefanik has to hope election predictions maintain true, which might imply that Republicans achieve management of the Home of Representatives within the Nov. 8 election.” • Lord, one other CIA Democrat. I’m so outdated I keep in mind when that was a narrative. Now it’s, er, a norm.
2024
“Youngkin Vows Virginia Gained’t Observe The CDC’s ‘COVID Vaccine Mandate.’ However That Mandate Doesn’t Exist” [DCist]. “Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin introduced on Thursday that he desires to get rid of COVID-19 vaccine mandates. ‘COVID-19 mandates needs to be in our rear view mirror,’ the Republican governor tweeted. ‘The choice to vaccinate a toddler towards COVID-19 is for Virginia dad and mom to make about what’s greatest for them and their household. We is not going to adhere to those @CDCgov mandates. In Virginia, dad and mom matter.’ However the Facilities for Illness Management and Prevention have by no means mandated any COVID-19 vaccines for adults or youngsters. Whereas the CDC’s advisory committee on vaccines did approve including COVID-19 vaccines to the beneficial schedule of immunizations for each youngsters and adults this week, that checklist is just a suggestion for states.. The CDC recommends vaccines; state well being businesses select whether or not to mandate them. On Friday, following the advisory committee’s vote, Speaker of the Virginia Home of Delegates Todd Gilbert issued an announcement clarifying the method for vaccine mandates in faculties, and indicating he wouldn’t transfer so as to add the COVID shot to Virginia’s checklist of obligatory vaccines. ‘Underneath state regulation, the one approach to create a mandate would both be by way of rule-making by the Board of Well being, which might not occur till 2024, or by way of an motion of the Basic Meeting, which is not going to occur whereas I’m Speaker,’ he wrote. The Virginia Division of Well being didn’t present solutions to questions on which public faculties require vaccines or the method by which an immunization is added to the checklist of these required for youngsters attending public faculties within the state by the point of publication.” • Nothing fallacious with a bit crimson meat, although, proper?
“Democrats condemn Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin for Pelosi dig following husband’s assault” [USA Today]. “At a Virginia marketing campaign rally for GOP congressional candidate Yesli Vega, Youngkin alluded to the Friday residence invasion and subsequent assault, which left Paul Pelosi, 82, with a cranium fracture and critical accidents to his proper arm and arms. ‘There’s no room for violence wherever, we’re going to ship her again to be with him in California,’ Youngkin mentioned on the occasion.” Democrat went nuts, as one does, however examine the agility of different Republicans: “Senate Minority Chief Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., mentioned he was ‘horrified and disgusted’ by reviews of the assault, whereas Home Republican Chief Kevin McCarthy reached out to Pelosi ‘to test in on Paul and mentioned he’s praying for a full restoration and is grateful they caught the assailant,’ his workplace mentioned in an announcement.” • No assault floor there. Attempting to string crimson meat by way of a needle at a marketing campaign rally. Awkward! (Trump most likely would have gotten the group booing Pelosi, after which damped them down. “People—…..”)
“Virginia’s Governor, a Rising Republican Star, Walks a High-quality Line” [New York Times]. “With the earnest pep of a youth pastor, Mr. Youngkin has touted his win as proof of his enchantment to a broad citizens, together with reasonable swing voters within the vote-rich suburbs of Washington and Richmond. However Mr. Holsworth and others problem that narrative. Suburban voters who historically help Republicans turned away from the get together through the Trump years, a number of analysts mentioned, then returned to their outdated voting habits with Mr. Youngkin on the poll. However the suburbs remained Democratic turf — extra so, in lots of areas, than they had been earlier than the Trump years. Mr. Youngkin misplaced Loudoun County by double digits, although it had develop into a floor zero for parental outrage over the varsity district’s antiracism efforts. He made up for it by racking up big margins in Virginia’s small cities and rural areas, in some locations exceeding even Mr. Trump’s displaying…. Chesterfield was one of many few counties that Mr. Youngkin flipped after his Democratic predecessor, Ralph Northam, received it in 2017, and interviews with a dozen voters right here didn’t counsel that the county was turning towards him. Few had sturdy emotions about Mr. Youngkin’s tenure in any respect.” •
“Pence: Publish-2020 election assembly with Trump, attorneys ‘a brand new low’” [The Hill]. Pence has a e-book popping out: “‘Loyalty is a Vice President’s first responsibility; however there’s a larger one—to God and the Structure,’ reads the outline of his e-book, entitled ‘So Assist Me God.’ Pence writes within the e-book that his relationship with Trump ‘broke down’ when the previous president ‘pressured’ Pence to overturn the 2020 election, in accordance with the outline. ‘The vp refused to go away the Capitol, and as soon as the riot was quelled, he reconvened Congress to finish the work of a peaceable switch of energy,’ the writer provides, referring to the Jan. 6 assault on the U.S. Capitol.”
Democrats en Déshabillé
Affected person readers, evidently individuals are really studying the back-dated publish! However I’ve not up to date it, and there are lots of updates. So I must try this. –lambert
I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Social gathering (“the Democrat Social gathering is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated publish, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “stay” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Social gathering is, in truth, a tough downside. I do assume the paragraph that follows is on level all the best way again to 2016, if not earlier than:
The Democrat Social gathering is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Pay attention, Liberal!). ; if the Democrat Social gathering didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. . (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” after all.) Second, all of the working elements of the Social gathering reinforce one another. Go away apart characterizing the relationships between components of the Social gathering (ka-ching, however not totally) these components comprise a community — a Flex Internet? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with property within the press and the intelligence neighborhood.
Observe, after all, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is proscribed by different lessons; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.
* * * “Fog of disinformation spreads after Pelosi assault” [Politico]. “Prices filed yesterday towards suspected assailant David DePape unearthed extra surprising particulars concerning the assault on Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s husband — together with ones that disinformation swirling across the disturbing incident.” Oh? Right here is the legal criticism.
“Six new particulars from Monday’s affidavit on the Paul Pelosi assault” [The Hill]. “She famous that there was ‘no safety current’ on the residence and that DePape ‘was in a position to break the window to a glass door to achieve entry into the house.’”
Realignment and Legitimacy
“Fact Cops” [The Intercept]. This ran in Hyperlinks this morning, however I wish to name your consideration to at least one phrase in a single paragraph: “Jen Easterly, Biden’s appointed director of CISA, swiftly made it clear that she would proceed to shift sources within the company to fight the unfold of harmful types of info on social media. ‘One may argue we’re within the enterprise of crucial infrastructure, and , so constructing that resilience to misinformation and disinformation, I believe, is extremely essential,” mentioned Easterly, talking at a convention in November 2021.” • If we take Easterly significantly — and why would we not — your crucial pondering abilities, your thoughts, your coronary heart are “cognitive infracture,” like, say, {the electrical} grid. And like {the electrical} grid, cognitive infrastructure will probably be constructed out primarily based on ROI, specified and constructed in accordance with requirements, maintained, and above all inspected. There’s a phrase for this. I do know it’ll come to me. I believe it begins with an “F”…
“The American individuals need to know the way the conflict in Ukraine will finish” [Joshua C. Huminski, The Hill]. From October 25, nonetheless germane. “Kyiv has been impressively managed and profitable in its management of the messaging of this info conflict. The West, not less than publicly, has little or no perception into Kyiv’s goals and intentions, or certainly its losses or battlefield efficiency past that which is conveyed through social media and journalistic accounts. Even elevating questions associated to those crucial components is tantamount to heresy throughout the current geopolitical and cultural atmosphere — as if asking the questions themselves is akin to supporting Russia. It isn’t. It’s merely prudent interrogation of geopolitical realities which have vital coverage implications.” • Huminsk is the director of the Mike Rogers Middle for Intelligence & International Affairs on the Middle for the Research of the Presidency & Congress, and a fellow at George Mason College’s Nationwide Safety Institute. In different phrases, a Republican can pose totally cheap questions {that a} Democrat can not.
“America’s brittle consensus on Ukraine” [Financial Times]. “‘Diplomacy’ is a taboo phrase in American politics proper now. The velocity at which progressive Democrats this week disowned their name for Joe Biden to speak to Russia is testomony to that. Solely Ukraine can resolve when and the way this conflict will finish, the lawmakers insisted. The group was clearly shell-shocked by the savagery of condemnation from their very own facet. But they had been responsible solely of talking out too quickly. Wars finish in one in all two methods: with the unconditional give up of 1 get together or in a negotiated settlement. Because the world’s equal largest nuclear energy, Russia’s full capitulation is sort of unimaginable. Which means the west and Ukraine will ultimately have to barter an finish to this conflict. That second has not arrived. However it’s most likely nearer than most individuals assume. Two large components will weigh on when Biden will attempt to carry this conflict to an finish. The primary is Republicans’ possible seize of 1 or each chambers of Congress in midterm elections in two weeks. Kevin McCarthy, the seemingly subsequent Speaker of the Home of Representatives, has warned that Republicans is not going to present a “clean cheque” for Ukraine’s self-defence. Fifty-seven Home Republicans and 11 senators voted towards the $40bn Ukraine support package deal earlier this yr…. The second is that the US will probably be getting into a recession. Economists are nearly unanimous that America is not going to escape that destiny in 2023. This may pose an acute risk to Biden’s — or to a different Democratic nominee’s — probabilities of defeating Donald Trump, or a Trump-like Republican, in 2024. Congressional Republicans will probably be working in tandem with the recession to darken Biden’s electoral clouds. Because the 2024 reckoning looms, Ukraine’s destiny will take a again seat to America’s.” • Because it ought to. Who’s writing the checks?
#COVID19
Keep in mind: The elite hate masks and don’t need you to put on them, no matter harms. And it’s onerous to consider a extra elite establishment than the Metropolitan Opera*:
In case that embed goes pear-shaped, right here’s a display shot:
UPDATE Alert reader Jeff W reviews that the Met took down their Instagram advert. Fortuitously, some type soul preserved the video on the Twitter, and I actually advise you to look at it. However put down your espresso!
Simply in case ppl don’t have Instagram, right here’s a replica of this video.
I really feel unhealthy for the employees/performers + the traumatized healthcare employees who must cope with the extreme instances which come up from unmitigated occasions there.
Companies needs to be held responsible for injury IMO. pic.twitter.com/liLwpUNwW6
— I WON’T vote 4 Harris/Buttigieg/AOC in 2024 (@flowermusickids) November 1, 2022
UPDATE And our New York readers would possibly think about giving the Met a name:
UPDATE: @MetOpera took down their offensive ableist video celebrating the tip of their masks requirement.
Thanks to everybody who referred to as & emailed them!!
Let’s sustain strain & get them to reinstate the masks mandate!
Contact Met 212.362.6000
MetropolitanOpera@metopera.org pic.twitter.com/3VnhITC7FJ— Mandate Masks NY (@MandateMasksNY) November 1, 2022
Commentary:
Within the video:
✅ Two Londoners give full approval as a result of masks are gone in Europe
✅ Native offers full approval too as a result of: freEdoM!!
✅ One other native additionally approves as a result of she dropped masks sporting and she or he continues to be right here, yay!That is minimizer propaganda. Interval. pic.twitter.com/gZM25bqfJq
— Ursula 😷🔧🔍 (@QuantitativeArt) November 1, 2022
NOTE * This makes me unhappy, as a result of I listened to the Met’s Saturday matinee broadcasts as a toddler. All a part of rising up PMC, I suppose.
“CDC Director Walensky Has Covid Rebound After Paxlovid Remedy” [Bloomberg]. “Walensky contracted a light case of Covid earlier this month and examined damaging after taking Pfizer’s remedy. On Sunday, she started growing delicate signs [as they always are] and has once more examined optimistic, the CDC mentioned Monday in an announcement. The infectious illness knowledgeable [lol] is isolating at residence and can proceed to work nearly. Many sufferers, together with President Joe Biden and Anthony Fauci, have confronted a return of Covid signs after taking a full, five-day course of Pfizer’s drug. The phenomenon seems much more widespread than formally reported, and rebounding sufferers should still unfold the illness, docs mentioned in a September New England Journal of Medication article.” • September? How about April? And there are questions:
An ideal query. Why don’t we’ve got information on rebound? On vaccine breakthrough? On virus evolution/choice publish Paxlovid/Mulnupiravir use? On lengthy COVID? Why aren’t these research being performed/already performed by @NIH @CDCgov or required by @US_FDA to be performed & reported by corporations?
— Rick Vivid (@RickABright) October 31, 2022
One other huge takedown of the droplet goons:
1/ Is DROPLET transmission ever essential for ANY illness?
NO EVIDENCE that it’s. If somebody desires to argue that droplet transmission IS essential, this now applies: “Extraordinary Claims Require Extraordinary Proof”
[Slide for upcoming talk]https://t.co/q346wDHK7M pic.twitter.com/lCf4UolSuQ
— Prof. Jose-Luis Jimenez (@jljcolorado) October 31, 2022
Will Upton Sinclair please choose up the closest white courtesy cellphone?
“The function of colleges in driving SARS-CoV-2 transmission: Not simply an open-and-shut case” [Cell Reports Medicine]. “Early within the pandemic, 4 findings led to the notion of restricted potential for in-school unfold of SARS-CoV-2: (1) perceived decreased susceptibility of youngsters to SARS-CoV-2 an infection, (2) obvious decrease infectiousness of youngsters, (3) lack of recognized transmission chains in faculties, and (4) comparable charges of an infection between faculties and communities. Nonetheless, there are vital methodological limitations related to every of those early findings, and the continued pandemic has instantly offered proof that contradicts the preliminary findings. We element the constraints of the proof for these perceptions and supply sturdy proof that faculties could be an essential SARS-CoV-2 transmission supply (Desk 1).” • A takedown of, amongst others, yesterday’s Sociopath of the Day, Emily Oster, whose “work” targeted on faculties. And talking of Emily Oster, one of many first to leap on to the Twitter with reward for Oster’s “Let’s Declare a Pandemic Amnesty” was none aside from Nice Barrington Declaration psycho eugenicist Jay Bhattacharya. However oh effectively–
I don’t see loads of aerosol scientists asking to be forgiven. Solely individuals like Oster and Bhattacharya. Why would that be?
“U.S. employees have gotten method much less productive. Nobody is bound why.” [WaPo]. • ‘Tis a thriller!
The whole lot’s going in accordance with plan:
Disabled employees. Not a coincidence. #LongCovid goes to screw us over if we permit #COVID to proceed to maintain spreading. Downplaying COVID is tantamount to sentencing a technology to a multi-organ debilitating illness. #CovidIsNotOver pic.twitter.com/jwOjxT8MSG
— Eric Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing) October 31, 2022
Clearly, we’re going to have to chop incapacity advantages.
“COVID-19 an infection damages intestine microbiome, examine exhibits” [MSN]. n = 100. “A COVID an infection can cut back the variety of bacterial species within the intestine, creating a chance for harmful antibiotic-resistant micro organism to thrive, in accordance with a brand new examine within the journal Nature Communications. ‘Our findings counsel that coronavirus an infection instantly interferes with the wholesome steadiness of microbes within the intestine, additional endangering sufferers within the course of,’ mentioned examine co-senior creator Ken Cadwell, a microbiologist at NYU Grossman College of Medication in New York Metropolis….. The examine is the primary to point out that COVID-19 alone damages the intestine microbiome, researchers mentioned. Prior to now, docs had suspected that the usage of antibiotics to deal with COVID had been damaging intestine micro organism. Evaluation of practically 100 women and men hospitalized with COVID in 2020 discovered that almost all sufferers had low intestine microbiome variety. The truth is, full quarter had guts dominated by a single sort of micro organism, the researchers discovered.”
Transmission
Right here is CDC’s interactive map by county set to neighborhood transmission. (That is the map CDC desires solely hospitals to take a look at, not you.)
Lambert right here: I’ve to say, I’m seeing increasingly more yellow and extra blue, which continues to please. However is the pandemic “over”? Effectively….
Positivity
NOT UPDATED From the Walgreen’s check positivity tracker, October 26:
1.3%. Quicker enhance.
Lambert right here: Please, please, please Walgreens. Hold updating commonly!
Wastewater
Lambert right here: C’mon, CDC. When you don’t maintain your website up and operating, I can’t carry out my private threat evaluation.
SITE DOWN Wastewater information (CDC), October 23:
October 23:
Variants
Lambert right here: It’s past irritating how gradual the variant information is. Does no person within the public well being institution get a promotion for monitoring variants? Are there no grants? Is there a single lab that does this work, and all people will get the outcomes from them? [grinds teeth, bangs head on desk]. UPDATE Sure. See NC right here on Pango. Each Friday, a stately, academid tempo totally incompatible with defending your self towards a variant exhibiting doubling habits.
Variant information, nationwide (Walgreens), October 19:
Lambert right here: BQ.1*, out of nowhere. So superior.
Variant information, nationwide (CDC), October 8 (Nowcast off):
Lambert right here: A lot of the screenshots of CDC variants operating round crop out whether or not Nowcast (CDC’s mannequin) is on or off; see crimson field at high. The BQ1.* determine of 27% that’s operating round is CDC’s Nowcast projection, three weeks out. (It’s telling that CDC would relatively construct a mannequin than fund quicker acquisition of actual information.)
Deaths
Loss of life charge (Our World in Information):
Whole: 1,095,315 – 1,095,204 = 111 (111 * 365 = 40,515, which is right now’s LivingWith™ quantity (fairly a bit larger than the minimizers would love, although they’ll discuss themselves into something. If the LivingWith™ metric retains chugging alongside like this, I could must resolve that is what the powers-that-be think about “mission completed” for this specific tranche of demise and illness.
It’s good that for deaths I’ve a easy, every day chart that simply retains chugging alongside, in contrast to the whole lot else CDC and the White Home are screwing up or letting go darkish, good job.
Stats Watch
Manufacturing: “United States ISM Buying Managers Index (PMI)” [Trading Economics]. “The ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 50.2 in October of 2022 from 50.9 in September, pointing to the slowest progress in manufacturing unit exercise because the contraction in mid-2020. Nonetheless, figures got here barely larger than market forecasts of fifty.” • Powell retains attempting to strangle the financial system and it retains not working. Not saying issues are nice, however they’re clearly extra nice than Powell would want them to be.
Logistics: “United States LMI Logistics Managers Index Present” [Trading Economics]. “The Logistics Supervisor’s Index within the US retreated to 57.5 in October of 2022 from 61.4 in September, pointing to the slowest progress within the logistics sector since Might of 2020. Transportation metrics proceed to be a drag, whereas inventories stay excessive, warehouses stay full, they usually each stay costly. Whereas there may be some proof that corporations are lastly winding down their inventories, the prices related to holding them stay excessive, and there’s nonetheless an absence of obtainable warehousing capability.”
In the present day’s Concern & Greed Index: 58 Greed (earlier shut: 58 Greed) [CNN]. One week in the past: 52 (Impartial). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Nov 1 at 1:51 PM EDT. I need to admit I don’t perceive Mr. Market in any respect. OTOH, it’s now November, and we haven’t had a Crash.
Groves of Academe
“Founders,” a phrase from YCombinator, I consider:
The highest 25 universities that produce VC backed founders, Stanford, Cal, Harvard, MIT & Penn are the highest 5 pic.twitter.com/tRs9ppdu3i
— Josh (@JoshuaOgundu) October 31, 2022
I ponder if anyone was ever performed a examine of how YCombinator’s startup tradition netted our for society as an entire. Was all of it rent-seeking and dopamine loops? Or had been helpful social features carried out? To not be cynical…
Guillotine Watch
“The 20 Richest Tech Billionaires Have Misplaced Practically Half a Trillion {Dollars} This 12 months” [Wall Street Journal]. That’s a rattling disgrace. However too small to be even a superb begin. “The paper losses for lots of the world’s greatest tech moguls come after the collective wealth of billionaires grew extra through the first two years of the Covid-19 pandemic than between 1987 and 2010, the antipoverty group Oxfam Worldwide reported earlier this yr. Within the early months of the pandemic, Oxfam reported, a brand new billionaire was created each 30 hours.” • So, I suppose the optimum method ahead is one other pandemic? Mars, b*tches!
Class Warfare
“Money-Wealthy Shoppers Might Imply Increased Curiosity Charges for Longer” [Wall Street Journal]. “Washington’s response to the pandemic left family and enterprise funds in unusually sturdy form, with larger financial savings buffers and decrease curiosity bills. It may additionally make the Federal Reserve’s job of taming excessive inflation harder.” • Simply to be clear, our Central [genuflects] financial institution desires to beat down your wages and take cash out of your pocket. This will get a bit crude.
“A whole lot Of Resident Medical doctors Unionizing At Ny’S Montefiore Medical Middle” [A More Perfect Union]. “MMC residents who labored by way of the preliminary years of the pandemic say another excuse for unionizing was the shortage of correct sources for care for his or her sufferers. Moderately than offering fundamental PPE, the hospital as a substitute gave resident docs rubbish baggage and Yankees rain ponchos and informed them to make due.”
Information of the Wired
“The Ventura downside” [Raspberry Pi]. Ventura is the most recent MacOS launch. “When you plug a Raspberry Pi Pico, or different RP2040-based board, right into a Mac operating Ventura, the RPI-RP2 “digital” quantity will probably be mounted as regular. Sadly, for those who then attempt to drag-and-drop a UF2 file onto the quantity, the method doesn’t full, throwing a kPOSIXErrorENOATTR (“Attribute not discovered”) error.” • When you perceive what meaning, you additionally perceive it’s unhealthy. C’mon, Apple. Kicking Raspberry Pi is like kicking a pet (to not point out that Raspberry Pi is much more Jackpot-ready than any Apple machine is).
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