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    2:00PM Water Cooler 10/21/2022 | bare capitalism

    Financial Services LifeBy Updated:No Comments25 Mins Read


    By Lambert Strether of Corrente

    Chook Music of the Day

    Darkish-eyed Junco (Crimson-backed), Otero, New Mexico, United States. “Music at dawn of a Crimson-backed Junco singing from the highest of a lifeless conifer with its trunk reduce off ca. 30′ up. Background contains: Warbling Vireo, Mountain Chickadee.”

    * * *

    Politics

    “However what’s authorities itself, however the biggest of all reflections on human nature?” –James Madison, Federalist 51

    “Right here’s meals for thought, had Ahab time to assume; however Ahab by no means thinks; he solely feels, feels, feels” –Herman Melville, Moby Dick

    “The logic of the insult and the logic of scientific classification symbolize the 2 excessive poles of what a classification could also be within the social world.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

    Biden Administration

    Debt ceiling trainwreck on the way in which:

    Why not kill off the debt ceiling within the lame duck session? Extra necessary than shoveling more cash to Ukrainian black market arms sellers, absolutely.

    Biden is appropriate:

    The consequential end result is victory or defeat for The Blob (for my part, the actual enemy). Now, how The Blob would react to defeat is an open query — presumably the defeat would have to be of “helicopters on the Embassy roof”-scale to keep away from denial — nevertheless it’s a query that must be posed.

    2022

    * * *

    “Peter Thiel’s enterprise capital-style political technique yields low returns” [Financial Times]. “Thiel and his candidates — Blake Masters in Arizona and JD Vance in Ohio — have largely did not muster help with the Republican institution, elevating questions concerning the Silicon Valley billionaire’s long-term relationship with the occasion’s gatekeepers, similar to Mitch McConnell, the Senate’s high Republican. In interviews, Republican political strategists and longtime associates of the PayPal co-founder and early Fb investor say his unconventional political giving is closely influenced by his background as a enterprise capitalist. His technique carefully mirrors the business from which he hails: make just a few massive, early and focused bets on a few campaigns. But a few of these folks mentioned they struggled to see the knowledge of this components, particularly in high-profile Senate races which can be more likely to decide which occasion successfully controls Washington for the subsequent two years. ‘These [tech] guys make some huge cash and assume they’re good — as a result of they’re . . . However that doesn’t switch to politics as seamlessly I feel as they hope,’ mentioned a Republican marketing campaign advisor who, like different individuals who know Thiel, requested to not be named in an effort to communicate concerning the billionaire extra freely. A profitable marketing campaign was like a three-legged stool, the advisor mentioned, with one leg being a great candidate; one other being exterior cash; and the third being occasion help. ‘The form of ‘donor-owner’ mannequin actually anticipates one [leg], which is their cash,’ the advisor mentioned. ‘They don’t take into consideration candidate high quality as a result of they know them and so they assume they’re nice guys and could be nice senators, and that’s the one consideration.’”

    “Thiel-Backed Candidates Battle to Join With Donors Not Named Peter Thiel” [Bloomberg]. “On the floor, Blake Masters and JD Vance would appear to have an necessary benefit as they head into the ultimate weeks of their Senate races. Each have deep ties to Silicon Valley’s richest and wealthiest buyers and years of expertise elevating enormous sums of cash to fund know-how corporations. Masters spent almost a decade working carefully with the enterprise capitalist Peter Thiel and co-wrote Thiel’s Zero to One, regarded by a era of Silicon Valley billionaires because the definitive startup guide. Vance additionally labored for Thiel, after which later alongside AOL co-founder Steve Case, and Thiel was among the many key backers of his enterprise capital fund, alongside former Google Chief Government Officer Eric Schmidt and Marc Andreessen, who co-founded one of many Valley’s largest enterprise capital funds. However whereas the connections to Thiel paid off for each Vance and Masters within the primaries—every was buoyed by a $15 million tremendous PAC contribution from their former boss—they haven’t been capable of flip Thiel’s seed capital into sustained fundraising success.”

    “Crypto Punk’d” [Slate]. “When Sam Bankman-Fried was requested throughout a podcast earlier this 12 months how a lot cash he may give to political candidates over upcoming election cycles, he supplied an eye-popping ballpark quantity. The 30-year-old crypto titan guessed that, at a minimal, he would put down ‘north of $100 million,’ sufficient money to make him one of many nation’s most necessary donors. Pressed by the host on whether or not he may even spend as much as $1 billion, he answered, ‘Yeah, I feel that’s a good factor to have a look at,’ including that the quantity was ‘a type of smooth ceiling’ on his potential largesse. Even when that $1 billion determine sounded outlandishly unrealistic, the feedback nonetheless appeared to vow an enormous tailwind for largely Democratic candidates. In any case, Bankman-Fried, who based the worldwide crypto alternate FTX and is presently value about $15 billion in accordance with Bloomberg, was considered one of Joe Biden’s high monetary backers in 2020…. However now, as the final election nears, Democrats are beginning to appear to be the victims of a political rug pull. With the occasion desperately low on money in quite a lot of Home races, Politico reported final week that Bankman-Fried had ‘turned off the spigot’ and was strolling again his guarantees to spend massive sooner or later. ‘That was a dumb quote on my half,’ Bankman-Fried advised the publication, relating to his suggestion that he may donate $1 billion. Elsewhere within the interview, he added that at ‘some level, if you’ve given your message to voters, there’s simply not an entire lot extra you are able to do.’ For Democratic teams going through quite a lot of tightly contested races that might go both method, it should have felt like a twist of the knife.” • Whoops.

    * * *

    “‘A Class 2 or 3 Hurricane Headed Democrats’ Means’” (interview) [Dave Wasserman, New York Magazine]. “I feel that is in all probability a Class 2 or 3 hurricane headed Democrats’ method, simply not a Class 4 or 5…. We’re nonetheless in an identical place, the place Republicans solely have to win about one in each 5 tossups to win the bulk, and Democrats would want to win greater than 4 out of 5. That’s a extremely tall order. It’s true that in most years, tossups break closely in a single course or one other. However I’d additionally level out we have now a bunch of races — 17 to be actual — in our Lean Democratic column, which implies there are loads of races teetering proper on the sting, and we wouldn’t be shocked to see a few of them fall to Republicans…. a few of Democrats’ greatest struggles this 12 months are in blue states the place the menace to abortion entry shouldn’t be as potent a November voting difficulty as it’s in midwestern battlegrounds, the place there have been ferocious fights between Democratic governors and Republican legislatures over the difficulty.” • Properly value a learn; Wasserman is a refreshingly sober analyst.

    Useful chart:


    * * *

    PA: “Dr. Oz made status as a surgeon, a fortune as a salesman” [Associated Press]. “Dr. Mehmet Oz rolled onstage within an inflatable orb, placed on a hydrating face masks and proceeded to pitch a brand new line of skincare merchandise to a conference of complement distributors at Salt Lake Metropolis’s Vivint Enviornment in 2018. The group roared in applause. The superstar surgeon’s look appeared like an extension of ‘The Dr. Oz Present’ on daytime TV. However his attendance was in service of the conference’s host, Usana Well being Sciences, a Utah-based complement producer that has been investigated by federal authorities, sued by its personal shareholders and accused of working like a pyramid scheme. The corporate was additionally a high advertiser on Oz’s present, paying at the least $50 million to be a ‘trusted accomplice and sponsor’ featured in common segments that usually blurred the road between medical recommendation and promoting, whereas additionally donating thousands and thousands of {dollars} extra to Oz’s charity, in accordance with information reviewed by The Related Press. Oz could have made his status as a surgeon. However he made a fortune as a salesman.” • To be truthful, Usana, structured as a multilevel advertising agency, hasn’t been convicted of something. However there’s a sturdy aroma of regulatory motion, fines, lawsuits, non-disclosure agreements, and so forth. I assume Fetterman’s oppo individuals are going over this fastidiously.

    Democrats en Déshabillé

    Affected person readers, it appears that evidently individuals are truly studying the back-dated put up! However I’ve not up to date it, and there are numerous updates. So I should do this. –lambert

    I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Celebration (“the Democrat Celebration is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated put up, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “stay” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Celebration is, in actual fact, a tough drawback. I do assume the paragraph that follows is on level all the way in which again to 2016, if not earlier than:

    The Democrat Celebration is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Hear, Liberal!). ; if the Democrat Celebration didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. . (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” after all.) Second, all of the working elements of the Celebration reinforce one another. Depart apart characterizing the relationships between components of the Celebration (ka-ching, however not totally) these components comprise a community — a Flex Internet? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with property within the press and the intelligence neighborhood.

    Be aware, after all, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is restricted by different lessons; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.

    * * *

    Realignment and Legitimacy

    “It’s been two years since 51 intelligence brokers interfered with an election — they nonetheless gained’t apologize” [New York Post]. “Precisely two years in the past, on October 19, 2020, one of many dirtiest tips in electoral historical past was performed on the American folks by 51 former intelligence officers, who used the false alarm of ‘Russian interference’ to cease Donald Trump successful a second time period as president. Utilizing the institutional weight of their former esteemed roles, they signed a dishonest letter to mislead voters 15 days earlier than the election, claiming that materials from Hunter Biden’s laptop computer printed by the New York Put up “has all of the traditional earmarks of a Russian info operation.’ Of their professional opinion, ‘the Russians are concerned within the Hunter Biden electronic mail difficulty.’ … It was all a lie…. You’d assume since so many have been outed for his or her involvement within the (non-existent) weapons-of-mass-destruction intelligence catastrophe that justified the Iraq battle, to not point out secret prisons, torture, warrantless eavesdropping and the majority assortment of Individuals’ knowledge, they could have discovered some humility.” • lol no. Good to listen to a conservative publication say this. Now how a few Presidential candidate?

    “Overseas Funding and Public Belief within the Assume Tank Sector” [Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft]. “Assume tanks can function a vital hyperlink between academia and the coverage neighborhood, providing critically necessary analysis and concepts to resolve the nation’s most urgent issues. However assume tanks can even function de facto lobbyists and public relations mouthpieces for his or her funders, generally even doing work on the behest of overseas powers. As these conflicts of curiosity have turn into extra obvious the general public has expressed low ranges of belief in assume tanks, which has solely been amplified by current scandal — most notably the previous President of Brookings going through allegations of working as an unregistered overseas agent.”

    “Major Occupation” [The Intercept]. “Two teams — Democratic Majority For Israel, or DMFI, and Mainstream Democrats PAC — started spending thousands and thousands pummeling Turner on the airwaves. The 2 had been successfully the identical group, working out of the identical workplace and using the identical consultants, although Mainstream Democrats claims a broader mission. Strategic and concentrating on selections for each had been made by pollster Mark Mellman, in accordance with Dmitri Mehlhorn, a Democratic operative and Silicon Valley government who serves because the political adviser to LinkedIn billionaire Reid Hoffman, who funds the Mainstream Democrats PAC. DMFI has additionally funneled at the least $500,000 to Mainstream Democrats PAC…. Whereas DMFI is ostensibly organized across the politics of Israel, in follow, it has turn into a weapon wielded by the occasion’s centrist faction in opposition to its progressive wing. In actual fact, DMFI, Mainstream Democrats PAC, and the American Israel Public Affairs Committee have spent a lot cash that the query of Israel-Palestine now dominates Democratic primaries. Throughout the nation, progressive candidates who a cycle earlier had been loudly vying for nationwide consideration with daring concepts to draw small donors had been as a substitute maintaining their heads down, hoping to remain underneath the radar of DMFI and AIPAC.” • On no account might this be characterised as overseas interference, any greater than Jeremy Corbyn’s defenestration might be. And naturally, within the UK, the organs of state safety had been closely concerned, which couldn’t probably occur right here.

    #COVID19

    • Shot:

    Chaser:

    Qualifier:

    That is just about the place I’m (together with having misplaced endurance with being good, in all probability silly, tactically). I don’t need to moralize (cf. John 7:8-9). However I’m not a nihilist, both. In contrast to some:

    I can perceive why Wachter would really feel this fashion. He’s, in spite of everything, the person who chivvied his spouse into attending a superspreading occasion, the place they each received Covid (and his spouse received Lengthy Covid, IIRC). That wasn’t a “dangerous” selection. It was a dangerous selection, an apparent candidate for steps 4-10, not just for his spouse, however for the general public at giant (and now, I suppose, I’m out right here taking Wachter’s stock. In my protection, he’s presenting the actions pushed by his technique as a mannequin for others to comply with).

    • ”Nominations for the Peste Journal Public Well being Disservice Awards, Hosted by Neoliberal John Snow” [Peste Magazine]. “We ask that you just nominate people and teams who’ve, in public venues, sought to worsen public well being in 2022.” • Maybe readers have some concepts!

    * * *

    • There are various, many such loops, your entire PMC is made to perform by a community of such loops:

    It appears acquainted, like:

    Sarcastically, Tammany was the very political machines the progressives of the day had been attacking. And right here we’re!

    * * *

    • Extra IDweek follies (“the joint annual assembly of the Infectious Illnesses Society of America (IDSA), Society for Healthcare Epidemiology of America (SHEA), the HIV Medication Affiliation (HIVMA), the Pediatric Infectious Illnesses Society (PIDS), and the Society of Infectious Illnesses Pharmacists (SIDP)):

    Masking up with a poorly performing masks, and modeling unmasked conduct for the cameras… It’s actually exhausting to outdo this. What do these infectious illness “scientists” assume a masks is, anyhow? Some kinda scarlet letter?

    * * *

    • Vacation ideas:

    I feel it nonetheless does….

    * * *

    • ”COVID Virus Could Tunnel by Nanotubes from Nostril to Mind” [Scientific American (semper loquitur)]. “How, in actual fact, does the pandemic virus that has so modified the world cross over into the mind after getting into the respiratory system? A solution is necessary as a result of neurological complaints are among the most typical within the constellation of signs known as lengthy COVID. The thriller facilities round the truth that mind cells don’t show the receptors, or docking websites, that the virus makes use of to get into nasal and lung cells. SARS-CoV-2, although, could have provide you with an ingenious work-around. It might fully get rid of the molecular maneuverings wanted to connect to and unlock a cell membrane. As an alternative it wields a blunt instrument within the type of nanotube “bridges”—cylinders constructed of the frequent protein actin which can be no various tens of nanometers in diameter. These tunneling nanotubes prolong throughout cell-to-cell gaps to penetrate a neighbor and provides viral particles a direct route into COVID-impervious tissue.” • A light glad dance from lambert, who wrote on 8/12/2020: “All about “lengthy Covid.” It’s these [family blogging] tentacles, I swear. When you get bindweed in your backyard….” Miild, as a result of the Monetary Instances article to which I linked (“Coronavirus produces ‘sinister’ tentacles in contaminated cells“) appears to explain a special mechanism. Nonetheless — as with a lot else — it’s the tentacles!

    Transmission

    Right here is CDC’s interactive map by county set to neighborhood transmission. (That is the map CDC needs solely hospitals to have a look at, not you.)

    Lambert right here: I’ve to say, I’m seeing an increasing number of yellow and extra blue, which continues to please. However is the pandemic “over”? Properly….

    Positivity

    From the Walgreen’s take a look at positivity tracker, October 18:

    1.0%. This has been growing steadily for the previous few days.

    Readers, please click on by on this, if in case you have a minute. Since Walgreens did the precise factor, let’s give this venture some stats.

    Wastewater

    Wastewater knowledge (CDC), October 17:

    October 16:

    Variants

    Lambert right here: It’s past irritating how gradual the variant knowledge is. Does no one within the public well being institution get a promotion for monitoring variants? Are there no grants? Is there a single lab that does this work, and everyone will get the outcomes from them? Extra sources from readers welcome [grinds teeth, bangs head on desk].

    NEW Variant knowledge, nationwide (Walgreens), October 7:

    Lambert right here: BQ.1*, out of nowhere. So superior.

    Variant knowledge, nationwide (CDC), October 1 (Nowcast off):

    Deaths

    Dying charge (Our World in Information):

    Whole: 1,092,409 – 1,092,031 = 378 (378 * 365 = 137,970, which is right this moment’s LivingWith™ quantity (fairly a bit greater than the minimizers would love, although they’ll discuss themselves into something. If the LivingWith™ metric retains chugging alongside like this, I could should determine that is what the powers-that-be think about “mission achieved” for this specific tranche of dying and illness.

    It’s good that for deaths I’ve a easy, day by day chart that simply retains chugging alongside, in contrast to every little thing else CDC and the White Home are screwing up or letting go darkish, good job.

    Groves of Academe

    That is unhappy:

    Healthcare

    I’m certain there are numerous such tales:

    And lots of such undergrounds, by analysis:

    If the GOP was actually the occasion of enterprise, give everybody healthcare, and we are going to begin small companies *tomorrow.*

    I can’t purchase respectable insurance coverage on the open market. There’s an entire household underground market underground of diabetes provides.

    — Scott Hanselman (@shanselman) October 21, 2022

    Zeitgeist Watch

    No:

    However that is not a brand new idea:

    “Everybody Needs to Be a Sizzling, Anxious Woman on Twitter” [The Atlantic]. From the @itspureluv account: “Right here’s a very talked-about tweet: ‘she’s a ten however she cries on her birthday yearly.’ … There’s an entire universe of huge accounts that put up content material like this—little snippets of language with mass attraction. They usually regurgitate the identical messages…. I began noticing this phenomenon final 12 months and adopted a few dozen of those accounts out of a curiosity that felt form of sick—they gave me a chill! They had been so good at spitting out (or choosing and copying) sentences and fragments that tons of of hundreds of individuals associated to, and so they had been doing it to no apparent finish. They had been shameless about retweeting themselves or tweeting a number of barely completely different variations of a thought to see which one would hit greatest…. Different folks on Twitter had observed them as effectively and referred to them (often with irritation) as “gradient accounts,” as a result of lots of their profile photos usually are not of human faces or the rest, simply shade gradients…. The facelessness of the accounts is what provides them a wierd, bordering-on-sinister attract. Who’s posting all these things, and why?… ‘I need to set the report straight,’ Andrew Zaffina, the 25-year-old behind @itspureluv advised me after I messaged him on Twitter and requested him to name me. “I’m so sick of individuals considering we’re bots. I’m actually only a actually relatable, chill, enjoyable web persona…. Zaffina makes use of his Twitter to drive consideration to his different accounts and to his companies—he’s a religious medium, teaches on-line lessons about spiritualism, and sells hoodies explaining completely different angel numbers. Relatable content material is straightforward for him to provide you with, he says, as a result of he appears at Twitter all day, each day, and his mind has began to function within the language of the location. And in 2022, the language of Twitter is the language of a sizzling, anxious woman.” • Hmm. I bear in mind angels from a Jezebel article the opposite day. In any case, it’s type of a reverse Turing take a look at, isn’t it? Very odd. (I suppose, for instance, you can characterize all of the Ukronazi tweets on the Twitter as emanating from a “sizzling, anxious woman.” However I don’t assume so. I do assume the creator has stumbled onto a phenomenon that’s deeper than they know. (I personally have by no means encountered a “gradient account.” However Twitter is a big and unusual place.

    Class Warfare

    “The Federal Reserve Is Coming For Your Subsequent Elevate” [HuffPo]. “The central financial institution has been elevating rates of interest, earning profits costlier to borrow, in a bid to decelerate the entire financial system so folks don’t spend a lot. That method, companies will provide decrease costs. A part of the answer entails what Fed Chair Jerome Powell calls ‘softening of labor market circumstances.’ That softening, as Powell and his colleagues envision, will contain greater unemployment within the coming 12 months. However Fed officers communicate in abstractions, discussing provide and demand or the significance of righting imbalances between the 2, whereas avoiding discuss concerning the materials penalties for employees. ‘The language that’s used to speak about financial coverage is sort of designed to make it much less clear what truly is at stake and what the actual targets are,’ mentioned J.W. Mason, an affiliate professor of economics on the Metropolis College of New York’s John Jay Faculty of Prison Justice. Powell has acknowledged that there shall be some ‘ache’ within the Fed’s marketing campaign in opposition to inflation, perhaps to the purpose of recession. However even employees who keep employed will really feel the impression of elevated rates of interest. ‘The one method during which greater rates of interest cut back inflation is by elevating unemployment and thereby inducing employees to just accept decrease wages,’ Mason mentioned.”

    * * *

    “Main U.S. freight railroads are powering proper by labor considerations with income intact… However the railroad’s $114 million cost within the quarter related to tentative and ratified labor agreements is a reminder that the larger concern stays labor relations” [Wall Street Journal]. “Two of the most important unions began to ship ballots on their agreements to members this week.” • Neatly avoiding the midterms, a favor the Democrats is not going to return.

    “Starbucks Company Employees Doubt Firm Values in Inside Ballot” [Bloomberg]. “Starbucks Corp. white-collar staff’ religion within the espresso chain’s ethics and social impression dropped to a historic low this 12 months, in accordance with an inside survey, with company employees voicing concern concerning the firm’s response to the union marketing campaign spreading by its cafes. In a survey of office-based US staff, solely 52% mentioned they ‘fully agree’ that Starbucks ‘behaves in an moral and accountable method,’ executives advised employees at an Oct. 13 assembly, a video of which was considered by Bloomberg Information. Barely fewer, 48%, mentioned they fully agreed that they had been ‘pleased with the function Starbucks has in making a social impression.’” • I feel these white collar employees want a union.

    Information of the Wired

    “The method” [Labor Intensive Art]. The deck: “Sharing the instruments, strategies, and tales of how I make my rugs.” And: “In consequence, I’ve at all times proven the again facet of my work because the entrance. It’s confused loads of viewers over time, so, simply to clear the air: I’m dishonest. I’m exhibiting you the again.” • That is actually neat! (Considering again to Amfortas the Hippie’s examples of artwork that I, a hoity toity high-quality arts man, wouldn’t think about “high-quality,” therefore not artwork.) Tons and plenty of ideas!

    * * *

    Contact info for crops: Readers, be happy to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn the way to ship me a examine if you’re allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn the way to ship me photos of crops. Greens are high-quality! Fungi and coral are deemed to be honorary crops! If you would like your deal with to look as a credit score, please place it at the beginning of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize through the use of your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From Not Even Anonymized:

    Not Even Anonymized writes: “Crimson maple final Autumn.”

    * * *

    Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not coated by the annual NC fundraiser. So in case you see a hyperlink you particularly like, or an merchandise you wouldn’t see anyplace else, please don’t hesitate to specific your appreciation in tangible type. Keep in mind, a tip jar is for tipping! Common optimistic suggestions each makes me really feel good and lets me know I’m heading in the right direction with protection. Once I get no donations for 5 or ten days I get fearful. Extra tangibly, a continuing trickle of donations helps me with bills, and I think about that trickle when setting fundraising targets:

    Right here is the display that may seem, which I’ve helpfully annotated:

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